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Kwanalu

The voice of agriculture . Die stem van landbou . Izwe lezokulima

MTBPS 2021 – ’n Geleentheid om vertroue te skep | MTBPS 2021 – An opportunity to inspire confidence

English to follow:

November 2021

Die minister van finansies, Enoch Godongwana, sal Donderdag 11 November sy eerste mediumtermyn-begrotingsbeleidstelling (MTBPS) lewer. Die beleidstelling het ten doel om ’n aanduiding te gee van die voorgenome fiskale beleidsrigting vir die mediumtermyn (drie jaar).

“Ons verwag dat die beleidstelling twee hooftemas sal bevat,” sê Kulani Siweya, landbou-ekonoom van Agri SA. “Die eerste is die aansienlike afname in die tempo van fiskale agteruitgang as gevolg van ’n kommoditeitsprys-meevaller wat inkomste opstoot, en die positiewe uitwerking daarvan op die fiskale verhoudings van hoër nominale BBP ná afloop van Statistieke SA se vergelykingstudie/herbaseringsoefening. Die tweede tema is na verwagting die onsekere skuldvooruitsig, hoewel vanaf ’n meer gunstige aanvangsposisie.”

Terwyl hierdie positiewe aspekte van ’n korttermyn-aard is, moet ons let op die langtermynvooruitsig, maan Siweya, veral inaggenome die menige strukturele uitdagings wat die land steeds in die gesig staar.

“Sommige van die dinge waarna ons sal kyk, sluit in sentimente rondom staatsondernemings en moontlike onbegrote reddingsboeie, asook die Nasionale Tesourie se onderneming om besteding in te kort. Ons glo dat dit ons óf op die pad na algehele herstel sal plaas, óf dat ons meer van dieselfde van die nuwe minister en sy span kan verwag.”

Siweya sê dat, hoe dit ook al sy, die mediumtermynstelling vertroue op verskeie terreine behoort te skep. “Dit is iets wat ons broodnodig het, gegewe die afname in investering in infrastruktuur, asook die behoefte aan inklusiewe groei wat tans nie onderhandelbaar is nie.”

Navrae:

Kulani Siweya

Agri SA: Landbou-ekonoom

Nicol Jansen

Voorsitter van Agri SA se Sentrum van Uitnemendheid: Ekonomie

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 09 November 2021

The Minister of Finance, Enoch Godongwana, will deliver his first maiden Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) on Thursday 11 November. The statement is aimed at providing an update on the projected fiscal policy direction in the medium term (three fiscal years).

“We are expecting the statement to be underpinned by two main themes,” says Kulani Siweya, Agri SA agricultural economist. “The first is the rate of fiscal deterioration being abated markedly, brought on by the commodity price windfall boosting revenue, and the positive impact on the fiscal ratios of higher nominal GDP post-Stats SA’s benchmarking/rebasing exercise. The second theme expected is the precarious debt outlook, though it does come at a better starting position.”

Whilst these may be positives in the short term, there is still some caution that we have on the long-term view, Siweya warns, particularly when considering that many structural challenges remain.

“Some of the things we will be looking out for include sentiments around State Owned Entities and if there are any unbudgeted bailouts, as well as National Treasury’s resolve to restrain spending. We believe that these, amongst others, will either set us on a trajectory of turning the tide around entirely or we will see more of the same from the new incumbent and his team.”

Siweya says that, ultimately, this week’s medium-term statement should inspire confidence once again from various spheres. “This is sorely needed in a time where investment in infrastructure has been on the decline and inclusive growth is now an imperative that’s non-negotiable.”

Enquiries:

Kulani Siweya

Agri SA Agricultural economist

Nicol Jansen

Chair of Agri SA’s Centre of Excellence: Economics