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Agri SA se verwagtinge: Mediumtermyn-begrotingsbeleidstelling 2019 | Agri SA’s expectations: Medium-term Budget Policy Statement 2019

English to follow:

28 Oktober 2019

Agri SA verwag dat die mediumtermyn-begrotingsbeleidstelling (MTBPS) voldoende hulpbronne beskikbaar sal stel om die landboubedryf se mededingendheid te verhoog en boere te ondersteun, veral in die droogte-geteisterde gebiede.

 Die Minister van Finansies, Tito Mboweni, sal die MTBPS op 30 Oktober aan die Parlement voorlê. Dit dien ook as ’n geleentheid om terugvoering te gee en om die konteks en aannames wat die volgende jaar se begroting sal rig te verduidelik.

Die balans tussen staatsinkomste (belastinginkomste) en -uitgawes is sentraal tot die regering se begroting. Die afgelope dekade is gekenmerk deur ’n tendens van lae ekonomiese groei en stygende regeringskuld, waar verstadigde groei die toename in regeringskuld versterk het. Daarbenewens plaas die hoë vlak van regeringskuld tans ’n verdere demper op ekonomiese groei. Sleutelfaktore wat die MTPBS in ag sal moet neem is die volgende:

  • Vooruitsigte vir ekonomiese groei en belastinginsameling: Stadige ekonomiese groei het ’n negatiewe impak op die hoeveelheid belastinginkomste ingesamel relatief tot die teikens soos uiteengesit in die Februarie-begroting. Huidige markvooruitsigte dui daarop dat die Suid-Afrikaanse Inkomstediens (SARS) nie hierdie teikens gaan bereik nie.
  • Stygende regeringskuld: Die rentebetalings op regeringskuld is een van die vinnigste groeiende uitgawe-items in die begroting. Indien die begrotingstekort voortduur, sal die druk om die tekort te dek toeneem.
  • Beperkte ruimte vir verhoging in belasting: Persoonlike inkomstebelasting bereik nou ’n punt waar ‘n verdere verhoging in belastingkoerse aanleiding sal gee tot ’n afname in belastingopgawes. ’n Verhoging in belasting op toegevoegde waarde (BTW) is ondenkbaar binne die huidige ekonomiese omgewing waar verbruikers reeds swaarkry. In die konteks van Suid-Afrika se soeke na beleggings, kan hoër maatskappybelastingkoerse moontlik broodnodige direkte buitelandse investering (FDI) ontmoedig.
  • Regeringsuitgawes en -waarborge: Balansering van uitgawes teenoor ’n afname in belastinginkomste sal wesenlike kostebesparings genoodsaak. Dit is egter ’n baie moeilike taak weens die stygende loonrekening in die openbare sektor, tesame met hulpverlening aan sukkelende ondernemings in staatsbesit (SoE’s), veral Eskom.
  • Groei-hervormings: Verdere besonderhede oor die implementering van hervormings soos voorgestel in die onlangse ekonomiese beleidsdokument vrygestel deur die Nasionale Tesourie.

Gegewe die belangrike rol wat landbou in die Suid-Afrikaanse ekonomie speel, verwag ons dat die MTBPS voldoende hulpbronne beskikbaar sal stel om die landboubedryf se mededingendheid te verhoog en boere te ondersteun, veral in die droogte-geteisterde gebiede, sodat die sektor kan voortgaan om gehalte voedsel vir die land te produseer en bydra tot werkskepping en armoedeverligting soos uiteengesit in hoofstuk 6 van die Nasionale Ontwikkelingsplan (NOP).

 Navrae:

Dr Requier Wait

Agri SA Hoof: Sentrum van Uitnemendheid: Ekonomie en Handel

(S) 073 304 0932

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28 October 2019

Agri SA expects the Medium-term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) to make adequate resources available to boost agriculture’s competitiveness and to support farmers, especially in the drought affected areas.

Minister Tito Mboweni will table the Medium-term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) in Parliament on the 30th of October. The MTBPS is an opportunity to report back and set out the context and assumptions that inform the following year’s budget.

The balance between government income (tax revenue) and expenditure is at the heart of the government budget. The past decade shows a trend of low economic growth and rising government debt, where slowing growth reinforced the build-up of government debt. In addition, the high-level of government debt is now placing a further damper on economic growth. Key factors the MTPBS will have to consider include:

  • The outlook for economic growth and tax collection: Slowing economic growth has a negative impact on the amount of tax revenue collected relative to the targets that were set in the February budget. Current market expectations point to the South African Revenue Service (SARS) missing these revenue targets.
  • Rising government debt: The interest payments for government debt is one of the fastest growing expenditure items in the budget. As the government budget deficit persists, the pressure from rising government debt necessary to cover the shortfall increases.
  • Limited scope for increasing taxes: Personal income taxes are reaching a point where higher tax rates will start showing decreasing returns in tax revenue. Increasing the value added tax (VAT) would be unpalatable in a slowing economy where consumers’ budgets are stretched thin. In the context of South Africa’s investment drive, higher company tax rates could deter much needed foreign direct investment (FDI).
  • Government expenditure and guarantees: Balancing expenditure against weakening revenues will require significant cost savings. However, the rising public sector wage bill along with support to struggling state owned enterprises (SoEs), especially Eskom, make this a difficult task.
  • Growth reforms: More detail on the roll-out of growth reforms proposed in the recent economic policy paper released by National Treasury.

Considering the important role of agriculture for the South African economy, we expect the MTBPS to make adequate resources available to boost agriculture’s competitiveness and to support farmers, especially in the drought affected areas, so that the sector can continue producing quality food for the country and contribute towards job creation and poverty alleviation as envisaged by chapter six of the National Development Plan (NDP).

Enquiries:

Dr. Requier Wait

Agri SA Head: Economics and Trade Centre of Excellence

(C) 073 304 0932